ERIC Number: EJ1170022
Record Type: Journal
Publication Date: 2018-Mar
Abstractor: As Provided
Predicting Graduation Rates at 4-Year Broad Access Institutions Using a Bayesian Modeling Approach
Crisp, Gloria; Doran, Erin; Salis Reyes, Nicole A.
Research in Higher Education, v59 n2 p133-155 Mar 2018
This study models graduation rates at 4-year broad access institutions (BAIs). We examine the student body, structural-demographic, and financial characteristics that best predict 6-year graduation rates across two time periods (2008-2009 and 2014-2015). A Bayesian model averaging approach is utilized to account for uncertainty in variable selection in modeling graduation rates. Evidence suggests that graduation rates can be predicted by religious affiliation, proportion of students enrolled full-time, socioeconomic status of the student body, enrollment size and institutional revenue and expenditures. Findings also demonstrate that relatively fewer variables predict institutional graduation rates for Latina/o and African American students at 4-year BAIs. We conclude with implications for policy and key recommendations for research focused on 4-year BAIs.
Descriptors: Graduation Rate, Predictor Variables, Student Characteristics, Institutional Characteristics, Colleges, Bayesian Statistics, Enrollment, Educational Finance, Socioeconomic Status, Minority Group Students
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Publication Type: Journal Articles; Reports - Research
Education Level: Higher Education
Authoring Institution: N/A
Grant or Contract Numbers: N/A