ERIC Number: EJ1169031
Record Type: Journal
Publication Date: 2018
Abstractor: As Provided
Can Incentives Mitigate Student Overconfidence at Grade Forecasts?
Caplan, Dennis; Mortenson, Kristian G.; Lester, Marisa
Accounting Education, v27 n1 p27-47 2018
Research shows that college students exhibit bias in their forecasts of exam performance. Most students are overconfident in their forecasts, academically weaker students are the most overconfident, and top-performing students are underconfident. The literature identifies negative repercussions of these biases, including inadequate preparation for exams. A recurring attribute of this literature is the absence of meaningful incentives for students to forecast accurately. We implement an extra credit scheme to incentivize accurate forecasts. Depending on how forecast bias is measured, the scheme mitigates bias by top-performing students and marginally mitigates bias by other students. Our results have several implications. First, we illustrate an extra credit tool instructors can use to incentivize students to make more thoughtful assessments of their future exam performance. Second, we show how the association between incentives and forecast bias differs across student groups. Finally, we show that results in this literature are sensitive to how bias is measured.
Descriptors: College Students, Self Esteem, Incentives, Grade Prediction, Bias, Accuracy, Student Motivation, Accounting, Business Administration Education, Statistical Analysis, Gender Differences, Majors (Students), Qualitative Research
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Publication Type: Journal Articles; Reports - Research
Education Level: Higher Education
Authoring Institution: N/A
Grant or Contract Numbers: N/A