This study considers probability models as tools for both making informal statistical inferences and building stronger conceptual connections between data and chance topics in teaching statistics. In this paper, we aim to explore pre-service mathematics teachers' use of probability models for a chance game, where the sum of two dice matters in winning the game. We report on an interview with a group of three pre-service teachers as they engaged in predicting and conducting experiments and computer simulations as an attempt to develop a winning strategy. This paper focuses on how the participants came to use the theoretical model of the sum of two dice as they tried to coordinate the combinatorial analysis and the use of data as evidence in their predictions.