Connecting data and chance is fundamental in statistics curricula. The use of software like TinkerPlots can bridge both worlds because the TinkerPlots Sampler supports learners in expressive modeling. We conducted a study with elementary preservice teachers with a basic university education in statistics. They were asked to set up and evaluate their own models with TinkerPlots by using a real and open dataset they were given. In this article we present students' processes of setting up and evaluating their models and focus on their reasoning during this process.