Many education policies require estimating whether students in different grades are on track for achieving certain educational standards. One approach for constructing these cut scores is to estimate the values on tests that predict reaching targets on subsequent tests. Whether a student is deemed on target can affect the student's course counselling and aggregate statistics can affect school closures and funding and teacher employment. Seven different regression procedures for estimating cut scores are compared with 15 different data scenarios. In some situations, all the methods provided fairly accurate estimates, but in other situations, some estimates were poor. The choice of which regression procedure to use can make a difference. Overall, a method based on a loess regression performed well.