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ERIC Number: EJ1154535
Record Type: Journal
Publication Date: 2017-Oct
Pages: 24
Abstractor: As Provided
ISSN: ISSN-0013-1644
Using the Coefficient of Confidence to Make the Philosophical Switch from a Posteriori to a Priori Inferential Statistics
Trafimow, David
Educational and Psychological Measurement, v77 n5 p831-854 Oct 2017
There has been much controversy over the null hypothesis significance testing procedure, with much of the criticism centered on the problem of inverse inference. Specifically, p gives the probability of the finding (or one more extreme) given the null hypothesis, whereas the null hypothesis significance testing procedure involves drawing a conclusion about the null hypothesis given the finding. Many critics have called for null hypothesis significance tests to be replaced with confidence intervals. However, confidence intervals also suffer from a version of the inverse inference problem. The only known solution to the inverse inference problem is to use the famous theorem by Bayes, but this involves commitments that many researchers are not willing to make. However, it is possible to ask a useful question for which inverse inference is not a problem and that leads to the computation of the coefficient of confidence. In turn, and much more important, using the coefficient of confidence implies the desirability of switching from the current emphasis on a posteriori inferential statistics to an emphasis on a priori inferential statistics.
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Publication Type: Journal Articles; Reports - Research
Education Level: N/A
Audience: N/A
Language: English
Sponsor: N/A
Authoring Institution: N/A
Grant or Contract Numbers: N/A