In higher education, departments are under increasing pressure to improve study success. Research in this field focusing on higher music education is scarce. The aim of this study was to gain insight into the predictive capability of the first year for study success of students at an academy of music in subsequent years. Data on study progression of 327 students were examined and courses with low pass rates were identified. In order to determine to what extent the first-year curriculum is selective, feasible and representative for the curriculum of subsequent years, group interviews and a survey were carried out. A clear relationship was found between study progress in year 1 and subsequent years. These results provide more insight into the predictive capability of the first year and have led to recommendations in how to improve study success in an academy of music.