ERIC Number: EJ1100478
Record Type: Journal
Publication Date: 2016
Abstractor: As Provided
Early Numeracy Indicators: Examining Predictive Utility Across Years and States
Conoyer, Sarah J.; Foegen, Anne; Lembke, Erica S.
Remedial and Special Education, v37 n3 p159-171 May-Jun 2016
Two studies using similar methods in two states investigated the long-term predictive utility of two single-skill early numeracy Curriculum Based Measures (CBMs) and the degree to which they can adequately predict high-stakes test scores. Data were drawn from kindergarten and first-grade students. State standardized assessment data from the "Iowa Test of Basic Skills" (ITBS) and "Missouri Assessment Program" (MAP) were used as criterion measures to evaluate multi-year predictive utility. Logistic regression and Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves were used to examine the extent to which the measures predicted success or failure on ITBS and MAP. Correlational and logistic regression results indicated the Early Numeracy CBMs effectively predict success or failure for the ITBS and MAP. However, further analysis of the diagnostic utility of the measures suggests that practitioners need to carefully consider specificity, sensitivity, and the degree to which the predictability of common screening measures can be generalized to all state standardized assessments.
Descriptors: Numeracy, Educational Indicators, Predictive Validity, Curriculum Based Assessment, Measures (Individuals), High Stakes Tests, Kindergarten, Grade 1, Standardized Tests, Criterion Referenced Tests, Regression (Statistics), Correlation, Diagnostic Tests, Screening Tests, Accuracy, Cutting Scores, Suburban Schools, Rural Schools
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Publication Type: Journal Articles; Reports - Research
Education Level: Kindergarten; Primary Education; Early Childhood Education; Grade 1; Elementary Education
Authoring Institution: N/A
Identifiers - Location: Iowa; Missouri
Identifiers - Assessments and Surveys: Iowa Tests of Basic Skills
Grant or Contract Numbers: N/A