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ERIC Number: EJ1094209
Record Type: Journal
Publication Date: 2011-Jul
Pages: 12
Abstractor: As Provided
ISSN: ISSN-1443-2110
Projecting Continuing Student Enrolments: A Comparison of Approaches
Aitken, Robert; Young, Anne; McConkey, Kevin
Journal of Institutional Research, v16 n1 p25-36 Jul 2011
Higher education in Australia is undergoing a comprehensive reform with particular focus on higher levels of attainment by increasing access to university study for Australians from all backgrounds. To support the government's ambition of around 217,000 additional graduates by 2025, it has committed to removing caps and funding student places on the basis of student demand. While this approach increases the total level of funding available to universities, it comes at some expense of certainty with funding no longer available for places not filled. For universities to successfully operate in this more uncertain and competitive external environment will, more than ever, necessitate comprehensive, robust business planning based on more precise projections of student enrolments. The University of Newcastle is a comprehensive, research-intensive university of 32,000 students that serves a regional population. It has a data warehouse that merges and links data from internal and external sources and over time to enable longitudinal analysis of the admission, progression, retention and success of cohorts of students. The university has historically used a range of data-driven approaches to project continuing student enrolments and equivalent full-time student load (EFTSL) for business planning purposes, based on the academic career, program, campus and admit term of student cohorts. This article presents the results from a comparison of these approaches with a more complex approach to projecting continuing student enrolments incorporating additional information on student demographic, admission and performance characteristics associated with retention and success.
Australasian Association for Institutional Research. 546 Gallymont Road, Mandurama, NSW 2792, Australia. +61-2-6367-5347; e-mail:; Web site:
Publication Type: Journal Articles; Reports - Research
Education Level: Higher Education; Postsecondary Education
Audience: N/A
Language: English
Sponsor: N/A
Authoring Institution: N/A
Identifiers - Location: Australia
Grant or Contract Numbers: N/A