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ERIC Number: EJ1068141
Record Type: Journal
Publication Date: 2015
Pages: 19
Abstractor: As Provided
ISSN: ISSN-1524-8372
A Probabilistic Approach to Conditional Reasoning Development
Liu, In-mao; Chou, Ting-hsi
Journal of Cognition and Development, v16 n3 p522-540 2015
How likely is the glass to break, given that it is heated? The present study asks questions such as this with or without the premise "if the glass is heated, it breaks." A reduced problem (question without premise) measures the statistical dependency (conditional probability) of an event to occur, given that another has occurred. Such statistical dependency represents knowledge-based reasoning (inferring from "glass heated" to "its breaking") and is a component of the response to the complete problem (question with premise). The complete problems therefore measure not only knowledge-based reasoning in terms of statistical dependencies (inductive component) but assumption-based reasoning (deductive component). Two experiments revealed: a) Knowledge-based reasoning continues to develop and attains adult levels at 7th grade for the problems tested, and b) assumption-based reasoning (deductive component) is reliable only for secondary school students (7th graders).
Psychology Press. Available from: Taylor & Francis, Ltd. 325 Chestnut Street Suite 800, Philadelphia, PA 19106. Tel: 800-354-1420; Fax: 215-625-2940; Web site:
Publication Type: Journal Articles; Reports - Research
Education Level: Grade 7; Junior High Schools; Middle Schools; Elementary Education; Secondary Education; Grade 5; Intermediate Grades
Audience: N/A
Language: English
Sponsor: N/A
Authoring Institution: N/A
Identifiers - Location: Taiwan
Grant or Contract Numbers: N/A