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ERIC Number: EJ1060091
Record Type: Journal
Publication Date: 2014-Jul
Pages: 9
Abstractor: As Provided
Reference Count: 8
ISBN: N/A
ISSN: ISSN-1443-2110
Modelling Continuing Load at Disaggregated Levels
Seidel, Ewa
Journal of Institutional Research, v19 n1 p55-63 Jul 2014
The current methodology of estimating load in the following year at Flinders University has achieved reasonable accuracy in the previous capped funding environment, particularly at the university level, due largely to our university having stable intakes and student profiles. While historically within reasonable limits, variation in estimates at the course level is increasing due to the removal of the capped environment, increased competitiveness across universities, and changing student composition, profiles, and study patterns. This translates to uncertainty in funding and how it is distributed across courses. It is now necessary to predict load in a way that accommodates the changing higher education landscape, with greater accuracy at the course level. This article compares the current method of estimating continuing load in the following year with an alternative method developed by the Planning Services Unit. The current method creates one estimate per course and utilises the previous year's continuation rate unless exogenous information suggests otherwise. The proposed alternative method disaggregates courses according to student academic characteristics that are associated with continuation rates. The method uses a generalised linear statistical model, derived from varying amounts of historic data, to estimate continuing load separately within each course cross-classification. This article will describe the logistics associated with, and the benefits of, applying the new method when predicting continuing load in Funding Group 1 (Commonwealth supported load) in 2013.
Australasian Association for Institutional Research. 546 Gallymont Road, Mandurama, NSW 2792, Australia. +61-2-6367-5347; e-mail: secretary@aair.org.au; Web site: http://www.aair.org.au
Publication Type: Journal Articles; Reports - Research
Education Level: Higher Education; Postsecondary Education
Audience: N/A
Language: English
Sponsor: N/A
Authoring Institution: N/A
Identifiers - Location: Australia