ERIC Number: EJ1004544
Record Type: Journal
Publication Date: 2013-Apr
Abstractor: As Provided
Reference Count: 43
What Are Error Rates for Classifying Teacher and School Performance Using Value-Added Models?
Schochet, Peter Z.; Chiang, Hanley S.
Journal of Educational and Behavioral Statistics, v38 n2 p142-171 Apr 2013
This article addresses likely error rates for measuring teacher and school performance in the upper elementary grades using value-added models applied to student test score gain data. Using a realistic performance measurement system scheme based on hypothesis testing, the authors develop error rate formulas based on ordinary least squares and Empirical Bayes estimators. Empirical results suggest that value-added estimates are likely to be noisy using the amount of data that are typically used in practice. Type I and II error rates for comparing a teacher's performance to the average are likely to be about 25% with 3 years of data and 35% with 1 year of data. Corresponding error rates for overall false positive and negative errors are 10% and 20%, respectively. Lower error rates can be achieved if schools are the performance unit. The results suggest that policymakers must carefully consider likely system error rates when using value-added estimates to make high-stakes decisions regarding educators. (Contains 7 tables and 4 notes.)
Descriptors: Classification, Measurement, Elementary School Teachers, Elementary Schools, Teacher Effectiveness, School Effectiveness, Academic Achievement, Achievement Gains, Scores, Elementary School Students, Teacher Evaluation, Computation, Hypothesis Testing, Least Squares Statistics, Bayesian Statistics
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Publication Type: Journal Articles; Reports - Research
Education Level: Elementary Education; Intermediate Grades
Authoring Institution: N/A