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ERIC Number: EJ1002096
Record Type: Journal
Publication Date: 2012
Pages: 5
Abstractor: ERIC
Reference Count: 0
ISSN: ISSN-0037-7724
The Keys to the White House: Prediction for 2012
Lichtman, Allan
Social Education, v76 n2 p57-61 Mar-Apr 2012
Conventional pundits, pollsters, and forecasters are focused on whether the economy will improve sufficiently in 2012 for President Barack Obama to gain reelection. The Keys to the White House, a prediction system that the author developed in collaboration with Vladimir Keilis-Borok, founder of the International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, provides a different view of this year's presidential election. In what may be the sternest test of the system to date, given high unemployment and sluggish economic growth, the Keys point to an Obama victory, regardless of the state of the economy in 2012. The Keys are 13 diagnostic questions that are stated as propositions that favor re-election of the incumbent party. The Keys to the White House demonstrate that the American electorate chooses a president according to the performance of the party holding the White House as measured by the consequential events and episodes of a term. (Contains 3 tables.)
National Council for the Social Studies. 8555 Sixteenth Street #500, Silver Spring, MD 20910. Tel: 800-683-0812; Tel: 301-588-1800; Fax: 301-588-2049; e-mail:; Web site:
Publication Type: Journal Articles; Reports - Descriptive
Education Level: Adult Education; Higher Education
Audience: N/A
Language: English
Sponsor: N/A
Authoring Institution: N/A