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ERIC Number: ED573085
Record Type: Non-Journal
Publication Date: 2013
Pages: 16
Abstractor: As Provided
Reference Count: 18
ISBN: N/A
ISSN: ISSN-2155-7535
A Comparison Study of Return Ratio-Based Academic Enrollment Forecasting Models. Professional File. Article 129, Spring 2013
Zan, Xinxing Anna; Yoon, Sang Won; Khasawneh, Mohammad; Srihari, Krishnaswami
Association for Institutional Research
In an effort to develop a low-cost and user-friendly forecasting model to minimize forecasting error, we have applied average and exponentially weighted return ratios to project undergraduate student enrollment. We tested the proposed forecasting models with different sets of historical enrollment data, such as university-, school-, and division-level enrollment. The numerical results indicate that the proposed models perform better when the school-level and university-level analyses are applied, as compared to the division-level analysis. We also observed that the forecasting error is lower when the most recent enrollment data sets are considered than when we consider all past enrollment data. In addition, when forecasting for spring semesters, the 1-year average return ratio method, using the school-level analysis, yields the lowest forecasting error of 0.40%. When forecasting for fall semesters, the average return ratio method, using the university-level analysis, yields the lowest forecasting error of 0.81%. A list of nomenclature is appended. [This study was supported by the Watson Institute for Systems Excellence at the State University of New York at Binghamton. For article 130 in the Spring 2013 issue of Professional Files, "Alternative Estimates of the Reliability of College Grade Point Averages. Professional File. Article 130, Spring 2013," see ED573086. For article 131 in the Spring 2013 issue of Professional Files, "Programs for Engagement and Enhancement. Professional File. Article 131, Spring 2013," see ED573087.]
Association for Institutional Research. 1435 East Piedmont Drive Suite 211, Tallahassee, FL 32308. Tel: 850-385-4155; Fax: 850-383-5180; e-mail: air@airweb.org; Web site: http://www.airweb.org
Publication Type: Collected Works - Serial; Reports - Research
Education Level: Higher Education; Postsecondary Education
Audience: N/A
Language: English
Sponsor: N/A
Authoring Institution: Association for Institutional Research (AIR)
Identifiers - Location: New York