ERIC Number: ED573083
Record Type: Non-Journal
Publication Date: 2012-Apr-2
Abstractor: As Provided
Reference Count: 42
A Growth Model for the Academic Program Life Cycle (APLC): A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis. IR Applications, Volume 33
Acquah, Edward H. K.
Association for Institutional Research
The academic program life cycle (APLC) concept states each program's life flows through several stages: introduction, growth, maturity, and decline. A mixed-influence diffusion growth model is fitted to annual enrollment data on academic programs to analyze the factors determining progress of academic programs through their life cycles. The regression analysis yields reasonable parameter estimates, including magnitude of enrollment peaks and duration of stages, and describes growth patterns of academic programs very well. The results indicate that key factors accounting for progress of academic programs through life cycle stages are external information and word-of-mouth communication (social and behavioral factors as well as economic factors). The model's application for analyzing market dynamics and long-range forecasting is demonstrated.
Descriptors: College Programs, Program Development, Models, Outcome Measures, Regression (Statistics), Enrollment, Foreign Countries, Enrollment Projections, Open Universities
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Publication Type: Collected Works - Serial; Reports - Research
Education Level: Higher Education; Postsecondary Education
Authoring Institution: Association for Institutional Research (AIR)
Identifiers - Location: Canada