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ERIC Number: ED567025
Record Type: Non-Journal
Publication Date: 2016
Pages: 7
Abstractor: ERIC
Reference Count: 6
Rapid and Iterative Estimation of Predictions of High School Graduation and Other Milestones
Porter, Kristin E.; Balu, Rekha; Gunton, Brad; Pestronk, Jefferson; Cohen, Allison
Society for Research on Educational Effectiveness
With the advent of data systems that allow for frequent or even real-time student data updates, and recognition that high school students often can move from being on-track to graduation to off-track in a matter of weeks, indicator analysis alone may not provide a complete picture to guide school leaders' actions. The authors of this paper suggest that approaches that capitalize on high-frequency data updates and treat risk as a more continuous measure can add more value. Moreover, models that also account for more nuanced and typically unobserved factors related to student risk may better identify students who need intervention. Predictive modeling methods, often used in business and medical research, can capitalize on these new, richer datasets and use data-adaptive methods to maximize flexibility. Yet very little has been written on ways to apply such methods to student-level education data to fill gaps left by simpler parametric approaches, and how they might inform practice decisions in timely and useful ways. This paper focuses on how the addition of an iterative predictive modeling framework that can be used with real-time data updates might add value over simpler and more static methods and fill a gap in understanding when, how and for which students the risk of not graduating changes. The authors describe benefits and limitations of the iterative framework, compare it to indicator frameworks, and make recommendations for practice.
Society for Research on Educational Effectiveness. 2040 Sheridan Road, Evanston, IL 60208. Tel: 202-495-0920; Fax: 202-640-4401; e-mail:; Web site:
Publication Type: Reports - Research
Education Level: High Schools; Secondary Education
Audience: N/A
Language: English
Sponsor: N/A
Authoring Institution: Society for Research on Educational Effectiveness (SREE)
Identifiers - Location: New York (New York)