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ERIC Number: ED522483
Record Type: Non-Journal
Publication Date: 2011-May
Pages: 7
Abstractor: As Provided
Reference Count: N/A
Predicting 6-Year Graduation and High-Achieving and At-Risk Students
Rogulkin, Dmitri
Online Submission
The second year of college can be as important as the first year but far fewer studies have been conducted on second-year students. About 12% of students leave California State University - Fresno during or after their second year. In this report, we examined second year students to find the differences between those who graduate and those who leave. A decision tree data mining model was used to identify factors that predict students' graduation. A clustering model was used to classify 5 groups of students by multiple characteristics including their graduation rate (which ranges from 99% for one group to 14% for another). The findings showed that staying on track, which was defined as reaching sophomore level no later than the end of the third semester, and cumulative GPA after the first year were the most influential factors in predicting six-year graduation. Potential interventions that may benefit certain groups were suggested. (Contains 5 notes, 3 tables, and 1 figure.)
Publication Type: Reports - Evaluative
Education Level: Higher Education; Postsecondary Education
Audience: N/A
Language: English
Sponsor: N/A
Authoring Institution: N/A
Identifiers - Location: California
Identifiers - Assessments and Surveys: SAT (College Admission Test)