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ERIC Number: ED511026
Record Type: Non-Journal
Publication Date: 2010-Jul
Pages: 64
Abstractor: As Provided
Reference Count: 65
Error Rates in Measuring Teacher and School Performance Based on Student Test Score Gains. NCEE 2010-4004
Schochet, Peter Z.; Chiang, Hanley S.
National Center for Education Evaluation and Regional Assistance
This paper addresses likely error rates for measuring teacher and school performance in the upper elementary grades using value-added models applied to student test score gain data. Using realistic performance measurement system schemes based on hypothesis testing, we develop error rate formulas based on OLS and Empirical Bayes estimators. Simulation results suggest that value-added estimates are likely to be noisy using the amount of data that are typically used in practice. Type I and II error rates for comparing a teacher's performance to the average are likely to be about 25 percent with three years of data and 35 percent with one year of data. Corresponding error rates for overall false positive and negative errors are 10 and 20 percent, respectively. Lower error rates can be achieved if schools are the performance unit. The results suggest that policymakers must carefully consider likely system error rates when using value-added estimates to make high-stakes decisions regarding educators. Appendices include: (1) Comparing the HLM and EVAAS Models; and (2) Obtaining Realistic ICC Values. (Contains 11 tables, 2 figures, and 6 footnotes.)
National Center for Education Evaluation and Regional Assistance. Available from: ED Pubs. P.O. Box 1398, Jessup, MD 20794-1398. Tel: 877-433-7827; Web site:
Publication Type: Reports - Evaluative
Education Level: Elementary Secondary Education
Audience: N/A
Language: English
Sponsor: N/A
Authoring Institution: National Center for Education Evaluation and Regional Assistance (ED)
IES Funded: Yes
IES Cited: EJ1004544; ED563445; ED544205