ERIC Number: ED502858
Record Type: Non-Journal
Publication Date: 2007
Pages: 35
Abstractor: As Provided
ISBN: N/A
ISSN: N/A
EISSN: N/A
Validity of High-School Grades in Predicting Student Success beyond the Freshman Year: High-School Record vs. Standardized Tests as Indicators of Four-Year College Outcomes. Research & Occasional Paper Series: CSHE.6.07
Geiser, Saul; Santelices, Maria Veronica
Center for Studies in Higher Education
High-school grades are often viewed as an unreliable criterion for college admissions, owing to differences in grading standards across high schools, while standardized tests are seen as methodologically rigorous, providing a more uniform and valid yardstick for assessing student ability and achievement. The present study challenges that conventional view. The study finds that high-school grade point average (HSGPA) is consistently the best predictor not only of freshman grades in college, the outcome indicator most often employed in predictive-validity studies, but of four-year college outcomes as well. A previous study, UC and the SAT (Geiser with Studley, 2003), demonstrated that HSGPA in college-preparatory courses was the best predictor of freshman grades for a sample of almost 80,000 students admitted to the University of California. Because freshman grades provide only a short-term indicator of college performance, the present study tracked four-year college outcomes, including cumulative college grades and graduation, for the same sample in order to examine the relative contribution of high-school record and standardized tests in predicting longer-term college performance. Key findings are: (1) HSGPA is consistently the strongest predictor of four-year college outcomes for all academic disciplines, campuses and freshman cohorts in the UC sample; (2) surprisingly, the predictive weight associated with HSGPA increases after the freshman year, accounting for a greater proportion of variance in cumulative fourth-year than first-year college grades; and (3) as an admissions criterion, HSGPA has less adverse impact than standardized tests on disadvantaged and underrepresented minority students. The paper concludes with a discussion of the implications of these findings for admissions policy and argues for greater emphasis on the high-school record, and a corresponding de-emphasis on standardized tests, in college admissions. Three appendixes are included: (1) Descriptive Statistics for Predictor and Outcome Variables; (2) Correlation Matrix of Predictor and Outcome Variables; and (3) Multicollinearity Tolerances of Admissions Variables. (Contains 34 notes and 20 tables.)
Descriptors: Predictive Validity, Grade Point Average, College Bound Students, Undergraduate Students, Standardized Tests, Scores, Academic Achievement, College Outcomes Assessment, College Admission, Minority Groups, State Universities, Longitudinal Studies, Graduation
Center for Studies in Higher Education. University of California, Berkeley, 771 Evans Hall #4650, Berkeley, CA 94720-4650. Tel: 510-642-5040; Fax: 510-643-6845; e-mail: cshe@berkeley.edu; Web site: http://cshe.berkeley.edu/
Publication Type: Reports - Research
Education Level: Higher Education
Audience: N/A
Language: English
Sponsor: Koret Foundation, San Francisco, CA.
Authoring Institution: University of California, Berkeley, Center for Studies in Higher Education
Identifiers - Location: California
Identifiers - Assessments and Surveys: SAT (College Admission Test)
Grant or Contract Numbers: N/A
IES Cited: ED556748