ERIC Number: ED476486
Record Type: Non-Journal
Publication Date: 2003-Apr
Reference Count: N/A
Future Job Openings: Australia in the Knowledge Economy. Project 2000-02: Changing Skill Requirements in the Australian Labour Force in a Knowledge Economy. Working Paper.
Shah, Chandra; Burke, Gerald
Forecasts of Australian labor market growth, net replacement needs, and net job openings to 2006 are presented using the nine-way grouping of occupations described by (Maglen and Shah, 1999). Analysis is based on classifying occupations by whether they are advantaged by globalization and technological change, relatively insulated, or vulnerable. Globally advantaged occupations are grouped by whether they are, by nature, conceptual or technical. Insulated occupations are in-person professionals, skilled workers, and low-skill workers. Vulnerable occupations are advanced skill, white-collar clerical, blue-collar operative, and manual low-skill. Findings indicate, in the medium term, overall growth in employment is expected to be 1.2 percent per year, and net replacement is expected to be 2.1 percent; turnover will create most job openings for new entrants. More than four of five jobs due to growth in employment are projected to be in the globally advantaged or insulated occupations with projected average growth rates of about 1.7 percent per year; the average for vulnerable occupations is 0.5 percent. Because of job turnover, a substantial number of job openings will be for new entrants in vulnerable occupations, with the net replacement rate of 2.0 percent. Insulated occupations with above average growth in employment have a relatively high rate of turnover, especially among low skill groups. More than one in five of job openings for new entrants is expected in in-person low-skill insulated occupations. Appendixes include a list of 18 references and a paper on replacement demand and growth. (YLB)
Descriptors: Adult Education, Demand Occupations, Developed Nations, Employment Opportunities, Employment Patterns, Employment Potential, Employment Projections, Entry Workers, Foreign Countries, Futures (of Society), Global Approach, Job Skills, Labor Market, Labor Needs, Labor Turnover, Occupational Clusters, Occupational Mobility, Postsecondary Education, Secondary Education, Vocational Education
For full text: http://www.education.monash.edu.au/centres/ceet/WP48.pdf.
Publication Type: Reports - Research
Education Level: N/A
Sponsor: Australian National Training Authority, Melbourne.
Authoring Institution: Monash Univ., Clayton, Victoria (Australia). Centre for the Economics of Education and Training.
Identifiers - Location: Australia