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ERIC Number: ED473070
Record Type: Non-Journal
Publication Date: 2002-Jun-3
Pages: 24
Abstractor: N/A
Reference Count: N/A
Accuracy of High School Grades and College Admissions Test Scores for Predicting Different Levels of Academic Achievement in College. AIR 2002 Forum Paper.
Noble, Julie; Sawyer, Richard
This study compared the cross-validated accuracy of American College Test (ACT) Composite score and high school grade point average (GPA) (HSAV) for predicting different levels of first-year college GPA. Logistic regression models were developed by institution, for predicting GPA levels of 2.00, 2.50, 3.00, 3.25, 3.50, and 3.75 or higher. These models were then applied to data from the next year (cross-validation over time) for the same institutions. Data were taken from 2 years of ACT Prediction Research history files. The 1996-1997 files contained HSAX, AXT Composite scores, and college grades for 219,435 first-year students from 301 postsecondary institutions, and the 1996-1997 data consisted of the same information for 782,957 students. The resulting base-year and cross-validation year statistics were summarized across institutions. HSAV predictions of first-year GPA levels of 2.00, 2.50, and 3.00 were somewhat more accurate than those based on ACT Composite score. HSAV was an ineffective predictor for higher GPA levels, however. ACT Composite score predictions, in contrast, were effective at all first-year GPA levels. (Contains 4 tables and 21 references.) (Author/SLD)
Publication Type: Reports - Research; Speeches/Meeting Papers
Education Level: N/A
Audience: N/A
Language: English
Sponsor: N/A
Authoring Institution: N/A
Identifiers - Assessments and Surveys: ACT Assessment