ERIC Number: ED469746
Record Type: Non-Journal
Publication Date: 2002-Aug
Predicting Different Levels of Academic Success in College Using High School GPA and ACT Composite Score. ACT Research Report Series.
Noble, Julie; Sawyer, Richard
This study compared the effectiveness of American College Testing (ACT) Composite score and high school grade point average (GPA) for predicting different levels of first-year college GPA. Logistic regression models were estimated for predicting first-year GPA levels ranging from 2.00 to 3.75 for a sample of postsecondary institutions. The prediction models estimated from one years data were then applied to data from the next year (crossvalidation over time). The resulting statistics on prediction accuracy were summarized across institutions. Both high school GPA and ACT Composite score were effective in predicting success at the 2.00, 2.50, and 3.00 levels of first-year GPA; high school GPA was somewhat more accurate than ACT Composite score at these levels. High school GPA was not an effective predictor of success at higher levels of first-year GPA, however. For example, even a 4.00 high school GPA corresponded to very low probabilities of success at the 3.25, 3.50, and 3.75 levels of first-year GPA. Moreover, high school GPA values below 3.00 provided little differentiation among students across first-year GPA levels. ACT Composite score predictions, in contrast, were effective at all first-year GPA levels. (Contains 4 tables, 2 figures, and 21 references.) (Author/SLD)
Descriptors: Academic Achievement, College Entrance Examinations, College Freshmen, Estimation (Mathematics), Grade Point Average, High School Students, High Schools, Higher Education, Prediction, Regression (Statistics), Scores
ACT Research Report Series, P.O. Box 168, Iowa City, IA 52243-0168. Tel: 319-337-1110; Web site: http://www.act.org/research/reports/index.html.
Publication Type: Reports - Research
Education Level: N/A
Authoring Institution: American Coll. Testing Program, Iowa City, IA.
Identifiers - Assessments and Surveys: ACT Assessment