ERIC Number: ED468472
Record Type: Non-Journal
Publication Date: 2002-Jul
Reference Count: N/A
Projected Supply, Demand, and Shortages of Registered Nurses, 2000-2020.
Health Resources and Services Administration (DHHS/PHS), Rockville, MD. National Center for Health Workforce Analysis.
The supply, demand, and shortages of registered nurses (RNs) were projected and analyzed for 2000-2020. According to the analysis, the national supply of full-time-equivalent registered nurses in 2000 was estimated at 1.89 million versus an estimated demand of 2 million, leaving a shortage of 110,000 (6%). The shortage is expected to grow relatively slowly until 2010, when it will have reached 12%. Demand will then begin to exceed supply at an accelerated rate, with the shortage reaching 20% by 2015. If the problem is not addressed and if current trends continue, the shortage is projected to increase to 29% by 2020. Factors driving the growth in demand for RNs include an 18% increase in population, a larger proportion of elderly persons, and medical advances that increase the need for nurses. The projected growth in supply is expected to reach a peak of only 10% by 2011 and then begin to decline as the number of RNs leaving the profession exceeds the number entering it because of the aging of the RN workforce and projected declines in RNs' relative earnings. Seven tables detailing national and state supply, demand, and shortage projections and discussions of the Nursing Demand Model and Nursing Supply Model are appended. (Contains 11 charts/maps.) (MN)
Descriptors: Demand Occupations, Educational Needs, Employment Opportunities, Employment Patterns, Employment Projections, Futures (of Society), Health Needs, Health Services, Influences, Labor Market, Labor Needs, Labor Supply, Models, Nurses, Nursing Education, Population Trends, Postsecondary Education, Research Methodology, Tables (Data), Trend Analysis, Two Year Colleges, Universities
For full text: ftp://ftp.hrsa.gov/bhpr/nationalcenter/rnproject.pdf.
Publication Type: Numerical/Quantitative Data; Reports - Research
Education Level: N/A
Authoring Institution: Health Resources and Services Administration (DHHS/PHS), Rockville, MD. National Center for Health Workforce Analysis.