ERIC Number: ED466036
Record Type: RIE
Publication Date: 2002-Apr
Predicting and Modeling Superintendent Turnover.
Natkin, Gerald L.; Cooper, Bruce S.; Alborano, James A.; Padilla, Arthur; Ghosh, Sujit
Successful large-scale school reforms require 5 years or more of a superintendent's attention. There is an implication that excessively short tenures, particularly if experienced in a brief span of time, could prove detrimental to systemwide improvement efforts. This study examines the survival of school superintendents in office, using data from the period 1975-99. The longevity of superintendents in 292 school districts was investigated. Data were analyzed by survival-analysis techniques using information on superintendent, district, board, and starting interval as predictors. Superintendent tenure has not changed significantly since 1975-79, averaging 6-7 years over the whole period. A number of factors were significantly related to survival in office: (1) level of school board involvement in management; (2) support for needed construction; (3) merger of school systems; (4) district poverty level; and (5) superintendents' postgraduate education. There also may be great value in exploring the ways in which belief in the "revolving-door superintendency," though a myth, has influenced, perhaps covertly, a range of leadership-related matters, such as hiring practices, superintendent salaries, and even the design of educational leadership curricula. (Contains 20 references and 10 tables.) (RT)
Publication Type: Reports - Research; Speeches/Meeting Papers
Education Level: N/A
Authoring Institution: N/A
Note: Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Educational Research Association (New Orleans, LA, April 1-5, 2002).