ERIC Number: ED447236
Record Type: RIE
Publication Date: 1999
Projected Social Context for Education of Children: 1990-2015.
Vernez, Georges; Krop, Richard
This report, commissioned by the College Board's National Task Force on Minority High Achievement, contains an analysis of possible changes in the racial and ethnic composition of the student-age population in the United States between 1990 and 2015. The data are presented disaggregated by social class, as measured by parent education and family income levels, and by native-born/immigrant status. To project the student population by 2015, a systemic and dynamic model of the flows of the U.S. population through the U.S. primary, secondary, and postsecondary education system was used. The model was calibrated using the educational transition probabilities and educational attainment measured in the 1992, 1993, and 1994 Current Population Surveys of the U.S. Census. A least squares regression technique was used to project family incomes in 2015, and a method was developed to assign the projected 2015 population aged 0-17 to families by the income and education of their presumed parents. Projections of the number of children that will be reared by parents with four different levels of education are included, along with projections of the number of children by family income quartile. All racial and ethnic adult groups are projected to increase their educational attainment, but disparities in educational attainment between racial and ethnic groups are also projected to increase. Four appendixes discuss: (1) in-school and out-of-school transition probabilities; (2) births, death rates, and annual immigration flows; (3) family income estimates model; and (4) children per adult, per educational attainment, and family income. (Contains 14 tables.) (SLD)
Descriptors: Context Effect, Educational Attainment, Elementary School Students, Elementary Secondary Education, Enrollment Trends, Ethnicity, Futures (of Society), Parents, Racial Differences, Secondary School Students, Social Change, Social Class, Social Influences
College Board Publications, Box 886, New York, NY 10101-0886 (item number 987258; $12 plus $4 postage and handling). Tel: 800-323-7155. For full text: www.collegeboard.org.
Publication Type: Reports - Evaluative
Education Level: N/A
Authoring Institution: College Entrance Examination Board, New York, NY.