ERIC Number: ED435596
Record Type: Non-Journal
Publication Date: 1999-Oct
Predicting the Need for Newly Hired Teachers in the United States to 2008-09.
Hussar, William J.
There will be a need for many newly hired teachers in the United States over the next 10 years as large numbers of teachers are expected to retire and enrollments are expected to increase. This report examines the problem using an algebraic model with no econometric analysis. It uses age-specific continuation rates of teachers from several different Schools and Staffing Surveys (SASS) of the National Center for Education Statistics to predict how many teachers will continue teaching from one year to another. The demand for teachers is taken as exogenous, and several scenarios are examined. The report assumes that the supply will meet the demand and that the age distribution of new teachers will be the same as the 1993-94 SASS distribution. Depending on the assumptions made, projections for the number of newly hired public school teachers needed by 2008-09 ranges from 1.7 million to 2.7 million. Some of these newly hired teachers will be needed to replace those leaving the profession, and others will be needed as enrollments continue to increase. The majority of the publication is comprised of statistical figures and tables, a technical appendix, and appendix tables. (Author/SM))
Descriptors: Age Differences, Beginning Teachers, Elementary Secondary Education, Labor Turnover, Private Schools, Public Schools, Tables (Data), Teacher Retirement, Teacher Supply and Demand
U.S. Department of Education, ED Pubs, P.O. Box 1398, Jessup, MD 20794-1398. Tel: 1-877-433-7827.
Publication Type: Numerical/Quantitative Data; Reports - Research
Education Level: N/A
Authoring Institution: National Center for Education Statistics (ED), Washington, DC.
IES Cited: ED447176; ED449202; ED438285; ED565614