ERIC Number: ED435416
Record Type: Non-Journal
Publication Date: 1998-Dec
Reference Count: N/A
Long-Range Statewide Enrollment and WSCH Forecast, California Community Colleges.
McIntyre, Chuck; Chan, Chuen-Rong
This report summarizes the most recent (December 1998) long-range statewide forecast of fall enrollment and average annual weekly student contact hours (WSCH) in California Community Colleges. The annual fall survey of college registrars shows that fall 1998 enrollment is up 1.8 percent over fall 1997. The office forecasting model projects an increase of 2.9 percent in fall 1999 enrollment statewide to 1,517,087, which would exceed the colleges' peak recorded in 1991. Further increases are forecast through the year 2005, pushing fall enrollments up by a total of 281,000 students, an increase of nearly 20 percent over this fall. The method used in this report is an econometric regression model to forecast fall enrollment. The structure and function of the model are explained in the attached Appendices A and B. Assumptions that drive future values for the model's five independent variables are student prices, financing, budget outlays, unemployment, and adult population. Recent increases in average student academic load -- largely the result of increasing high school graduate enrollment -- are projected to continue into 1999-2000, followed by use of a three-year moving average throughout the balance of the forecast period. These values are then used to derive total future WSCH. (VWC)
Descriptors: College Attendance, Community Colleges, Educational Demand, Educational Supply, Enrollment, Enrollment Influences, Enrollment Management, Enrollment Projections, Enrollment Rate, Enrollment Trends, Federal Legislation, Two Year Colleges
WSCH stands for Weekly Student Contact Hours.
Publication Type: Numerical/Quantitative Data; Reports - Research
Education Level: N/A
Authoring Institution: California Community Colleges, Sacramento. Office of the Chancellor.