ERIC Number: ED434165
Record Type: Non-Journal
Publication Date: 1999-Sep
Reference Count: N/A
Projections of Education Statistics to 2009.
Gerald, Debra E.; Hussar, William J.
This report includes statistics on elementary and secondary schools and institutions of higher education at the national level. Included are projections for enrollment, graduates, classroom teachers, and expenditures to the year 2008. In addition, the report includes projections of enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools and high school graduates to the year 2009 at the state level. These projections reflect revisions influenced by the 1990 Census, the 1997 estimates, and the latest assumptions for fertility rate, net immigration, and mortality rate. A methodology section describes models and assumptions used to develop the projections, which are based on a cohort survival model, an age-specific enrollment rate model, exponential smoothing models, and econometric models. Most of the projections include three alternatives, based on different assumptions about growth paths. The first alternative, the middle projection, is considered the most likely. In the forecast summary, key demographic and economic assumptions are presented in chart 1 and selected education statistics are shown in figure 1. Total public and private elementary and secondary enrollment is projected to increase to 54.5 million in 2006 and remain constant through the year 2009. Higher education enrollment, however, is projected to increase by 14%, to 16.3 million, by the year 2009. Four appendixes contain technical information, supplementary tables, remarks on data sources, and a glossary. (Contains 1 chart, 71 figures, 52 tables; 26 methodological tables, and 13 supplementary tables. (SLD)
Descriptors: Census Figures, College Graduates, Educational Trends, Elementary Secondary Education, Enrollment Projections, Futures (of Society), High School Graduates, Higher Education, Private Schools, Public Schools, School Demography, School Statistics, Tables (Data)
U.S. Department of Education, ED Pubs, P.O. Box 1398, Jessup, MD 20794-1398; Tel: 877-4ED-PUBS (Toll Free).
Publication Type: Numerical/Quantitative Data
Education Level: N/A
Authoring Institution: National Center for Education Statistics (ED), Washington, DC.