ERIC Number: ED428587
Record Type: Non-Journal
Publication Date: 1997
Reference Count: N/A
Is an Oversupply of College Graduates Coming?
This paper addresses conflicting views on whether there is now or will soon be a surplus of college graduates and other skilled workers by analyzing data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Ten questions (and the answers reached) are addressed: (1) "Do the latest BLS projections of college graduate supply actually predict a bust--a substantial deterioration in the ability of college graduates to get good jobs?" (No); (2) "Do BLS estimates of the share of jobs that "require" a college degree and the share of college graduates who are "underemployed" have a credible scientific basis?" (No); (3) "Have past BLS projections successfully predicted changes in the market for college graduates?" (No); (4) "Are BLS's occupational projections biased?" (Yes); (5) "Is there an alternate methodology for projecting occupational employment that does a better job than the BLS projections?" (Yes); (6) "Are the regression models of occupational shares stable?" (Yes); (7) "Have skill differentials between college level jobs and other jobs stopped growing?" (No); (8) "Have rates of college completion risen enough to flood the college graduate market?" (No); (9) "Is the U.S. overeducated relative to other nations?" (No); and (10) "What are the policy implications of the above?" (They suggest the need to raise high school standards, increase financial aid, make tuition tax deductible, and stop increasing public college tuition). (Contains 61 references.) (DB)
Publication Type: Numerical/Quantitative Data; Opinion Papers
Education Level: N/A
Sponsor: Office of Educational Research and Improvement (ED), Washington, DC.
Authoring Institution: National Center for Postsecondary Improvement, Stanford, CA.