ERIC Number: ED426640
Record Type: Non-Journal
Publication Date: 1998-Sep
Tidal Wave II Revisited: A Review of Earlier Enrollment Projections for California Higher Education.
Hayward, Gerald C.; Breneman, David W.; Estrada, Leobardo F.
This report examined enrollment projections for higher education institutions in California in relation to earlier projections conducted in the mid-1990s that forecasted steep declines in enrollment. It notes that California's remarkable economic recovery over the last several years has allowed it to fund higher education enrollment growth at a rate that has surpassed many of the projections extant in 1995. The report explains that recent projections made by the California Department of Finance and the higher education segments (the University of California, California State University, and California Community College systems) are now much more consistent with the California Postsecondary Education Commission's baseline projections than the department's and the segments' estimates were 3 years ago. It is maintained that the actual increases in enrollment during the past few years and the recent projections of an enrollment surge of 538,000 students by 2005-06 have implications of tidal wave proportions. It is concluded that this re-examination of enrollment projections has reconfirmed earlier findings that segmental policies have a significant influence on enrollment patterns for the other segments, and have an immense effect on perceived levels of student demand. (MDM)
Descriptors: Community Colleges, Economic Factors, Educational Policy, Enrollment Influences, Enrollment Projections, Enrollment Trends, Higher Education, Retrenchment, State Departments of Education, State Universities, Statewide Planning
National Center for Public Policy and Higher Education, 152 N. Third St., Suite 705, San Jose, CA 95112; Tel: 408-271-2699; Fax: 408-271-2697; e-mail: firstname.lastname@example.org; Web site: http://www.highereducation.org
Publication Type: Reports - Research
Education Level: N/A
Authoring Institution: National Center for Public Policy and Higher Education, CA.
Identifiers - Location: California