ERIC Number: ED413811
Record Type: Non-Journal
Publication Date: 1997-May
Reference Count: N/A
The Class of 2014: Preserving Access to California Higher Education.
Park, George; Lempert, Robert
This study used exploratory modeling, a methodology that combines traditional quantitative forecasting techniques with the insights from scenario-planning, to analyze the conditions under which California can preserve access to its system of public higher education. The study identified two trends currently dominating the issue of future access--future state funding and feasible improvements in productivity. Three major conclusions were drawn: (1) if the fraction of state funds allocated to higher education remains at current levels or increases and if productivity increases at faster than historic rates, California will avoid serious access deficits; (2) if the fraction of state funds allocated remains at the current level, California can maintain access only by achieving productivity increases that are very large relative to historical rates of improvement; and (3) the above conclusions are largely insensitive to any plausible decisions about changes in student fees or trends in future demand for higher education. Four appendices provide additional detail and documentation on modeling enrollment and degrees, admission criteria, revenues, and productivity. (Contains 20 references.) (DB)
Publication Type: Opinion Papers; Reports - Evaluative
Education Level: N/A
Sponsor: California Education Roundtable.; Alfred P. Sloan Foundation, New York, NY.
Authoring Institution: Rand Corp., Santa Monica, CA. Inst. on Education and Training.
Identifiers - Location: California