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ERIC Number: ED410887
Record Type: Non-Journal
Publication Date: 1997-May
Pages: 12
Abstractor: N/A
Reference Count: N/A
Trend Analysis and Enrollment Management. AIR 1997 Annual Forum Paper.
Tsui, Ping-Sheng; Murdock, Tullisse; Mayer, Laurie
This study examined whether the use of trend analysis combined with analysis of persistence variables can be used to establish a model to forecast the first-year persistence of college freshmen. A linear model was created using data on 2,603 first-time freshmen at a moderate-sized comprehensive university from fall 1989 through fall 1993. The forecast equation was tested on the first-year persistence rate for freshmen newly enrolled in fall 1994. The resulting discrepancy was between the expected and actual persistence rate of 0.56%. The study identified the following variables as having statistically significant correlations with freshman first-year persistence: high school grade point average, high school rank, university grade point average, Scholastic Assessment Test (Math) score, loans, institutional scholarships, outside scholarships, and work-study. Five tables and a figure detail the study's findings. (Contains 12 references.) (Author/LEE)
Publication Type: Reports - Research; Speeches/Meeting Papers
Education Level: N/A
Audience: N/A
Language: English
Sponsor: N/A
Authoring Institution: N/A