ERIC Number: ED408367
Record Type: Non-Journal
Publication Date: 1997-Jun
Reference Count: N/A
Projections of Education Statistics to 2007.
Gerald, Debra E.; Hussar, William J.
"Projections of Education Statistics to 2007" is the 26th report in a series begun in 1964 that revises projections annually to show statistics on elementary and secondary schools and institutions of higher education at the national level. Included are projections for enrollment, graduates, classroom teachers, and expenditures. In addition, this report contains projections of public school elementary and secondary enrollment and high school graduates to the year 2007 at the state level. These projections are not intended to supplant detailed projections prepared in the individual states. Projections in this report reflect revisions influenced by the 1990 Census and its 1995 estimates. A methodology section describes models and assumptions used to develop the projections, which are based on a cohort-survival model, an age-specific enrollment rate model, exponential smoothing models, and econometric models. Most of the projections include three alternatives, based on different assumptions about growth paths. The first alternative set, the middle alternative, is considered to be the most likely projection, but the high and low alternatives present a reasonable range of outcomes. Total public and private elementary and secondary school enrollment is projected to increase to 54.3 million by the year 2007, an increase of 7% from 1995. Higher education enrollment is projected to increase from an estimated 13.9 million in 1995 to 16.1 million in 2007. Accompanying these increases will be increases in the numbers of high school and college graduates and classroom teachers. Four appendixes contain technical information, supplementary tables, remarks on data sources, and a glossary. (Contains 1 chart, 71 figures, 52 tables, 26 methodological tables, and 12 supplementary tables.) (SLD)
Descriptors: Census Figures, College Graduates, Educational Trends, Elementary Secondary Education, Enrollment Projections, Futures (of Society), High School Graduates, Higher Education, Private Schools, Public Schools, School Demography, School Statistics, Tables (Data), Trend Analysis
U.S. Government Printing Office, Superintendent of Documents, Mail Stop: SSOP, Washington, DC 20402-9328.
Publication Type: Numerical/Quantitative Data; Reports - Evaluative
Education Level: N/A
Authoring Institution: National Center for Education Statistics (ED), Washington, DC.