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ERIC Number: ED407023
Record Type: Non-Journal
Publication Date: 1997-Feb
Pages: 11
Abstractor: N/A
Reference Count: N/A
ISBN: N/A
ISSN: N/A
Scenario Planning in Higher Education.
Rieley, James
Scenario planning can help institutions change the mental models used in planning to achieve a focus on the long-term future, rather than on the immediate future. While institutional survival depends upon the ability to detect and adapt to critical changes in the environment, all institutions face a wide range of potential future scenarios. By interviewing stakeholders regarding their perceptions of what the future holds in store, colleges can inform their selection of one or two potential scenarios to explore. Responses can be sorted into four quadrants, composed of two common characteristics and their opposites, with scenarios being developed for each. Because institutions tend to believe that their future will be an extension of their past, scenario planning can help examine the large-scale forces that may push the future into different directions. These driving forces are related to demographics and lifestyles, economics, politics, environmental factors, and technological issues. Once these forces have been identified, institutions should identify the forces that can be predicted and those that are uncertain and largely controlled by mental models. An effective tool for examining mental models is the systems map, using arrows to define the relationships between elemental behaviors. For each scenario, a scenario matrix should be used to develop a valid compilation of scenario strategies. A collective matrix is then built, which reflects the collective vision of the group members. Contains 17 references. (HAA)
Publication Type: Opinion Papers; Speeches/Meeting Papers
Education Level: N/A
Audience: N/A
Language: English
Sponsor: N/A
Authoring Institution: N/A