ERIC Number: ED404368
Record Type: Non-Journal
Publication Date: 1994-Dec-20
Reference Count: N/A
An Evaluation of the Robustness of the NAEP Trend Lines for Racial/Ethnic Subgroups. NAEP TRP Task 3h: Non-Cognitive Variables.
Barron, Sheila I.; Koretz, Daniel M.
Recent changes in the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) that lead to its division into a trend assessment and a main assessment jeopardize the information the NAEP can provide about trends, especially the trends for racial and ethnic groups. This study for the Technical Review Panel addressed whether the trend assessment provides overly error-prone estimates for population groups and whether estimates are substantially different than those that would have been obtained had the trend assessment more closely resembled the main assessment. Data from the trend assessment for all its years of administration through 1992 and from the 1984 and 1992 main assessments were used, along with Census data. The combination of smaller samples and the lack of oversampling of minorities results in extremely large confidence intervals for Black and Hispanic means for the trend assessment. To explore systemic differences between the trend and main assessments, differences in the method used to identify minority students, the use of age-defined rather than grade-defined samples, and differences on content and format were studied. Both the (large) differences in ethnic classification and the use of age-defined samples appear to have erratic effects on trend lines, but differences in format and content have little impact. The findings are uncertain primarily because of the large standard errors for the minority results. Recommendations are offered to improve the trend lines. (Contains 7 figures, 9 tables, and 13 references.) (Author/SLD)
Publication Type: Reports - Evaluative; Numerical/Quantitative Data
Education Level: N/A
Sponsor: National Center for Education Statistics (ED), Washington, DC.
Authoring Institution: National Center for Research on Evaluation, Standards, and Student Testing, Los Angeles, CA.
Identifiers - Assessments and Surveys: National Assessment of Educational Progress