ERIC Number: ED401819
Record Type: Non-Journal
Publication Date: 1996
Reference Count: N/A
The Fiscal and Demographic Environment of the California State University at Northridge. Higher Education for the 21st Century Series.
Carroll, Stephen; And Others
This report presents the results of an examination by Rand Corporation of external environmental factors affecting the Northridge campus of Canlifornia State University. For institutions of higher education, especially public institutions, these external environmental factors may include fiscal, demographic, labor market, political, legal, technological, and social forces among others. The report focuses on the existing state of affairs and projected trends for fiscal and demographic matters, and the political context. The report predicts that major spending programs will grow faster than state revenues; that mandated expenditures and entitlements will consume almost all General Fund revenues; and that there will be a growing squeeze on public services, particularly higher education. Two demographic trends will directly affect enrollment: (1) the population age group that has traditionally composed the bulk of the school's total enrollment is shrinking and will continue to shrink over the foreseeable future; and, (2) although Hispanics will be an increasingly large proportion of this population, historically low Hispanic enrollment rates suggest this is unlikely to create a corresponding increase in total enrollments. Political response is constrained by increased demand for health and welfare services and K-12 education implied by demographics, lowered expectations of federal aid, and increased state spending on corrections. (MAH)
Descriptors: Declining Enrollment, Demography, Educational Economics, Enrollment Projections, Enrollment Trends, Environmental Scanning, Futures (of Society), Higher Education, Hispanic Americans, Human Services, Politics of Education, Prediction, Racial Composition, School Surveys, Social Services, Strategic Planning, Trend Analysis
RAND, 1700 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138; Distribution Services telephone: (310) 451-7002; fax: (310) 451-6915; internet: email@example.com
Publication Type: Opinion Papers; Reports - Evaluative
Education Level: N/A
Sponsor: Lilly Endowment, Inc., Indianapolis, IN.; California State Univ., Northridge.
Authoring Institution: Rand Corp., Santa Monica, CA. Inst. on Education and Training.