ERIC Number: ED397478
Record Type: RIE
Publication Date: 1996-Mar
A Broad Base National Enrollment Model.
Neblock, Carl S.
The use of the cohort-survival method for projecting student enrollments is widely known in educational finance literature; however, the limited information provided by the model impedes planners in making future operational decisions. The cohort-survival method employs historical rates of usage to predict future patterns of usage and produces a grade-by-grade forecast for each student cohort. This paper presents a model that develops multipliers for several student-support programs to create a broad base of information. The model accommodates the number of regular public school students by grade level as well as an estimate of certain student-support programs--compensatory education, bilingual education, and 11 categories of special education. The model incorporates student-support-program requirements and adds the numbers of retained members to the next cohort, thus presenting a more accurate view of the enrollment picture. Two figures are included. (Contains nine references.) (LMI)
Descriptors: Algorithms, Bilingual Education, Cohort Analysis, Compensatory Education, Cybernetics, Educational Finance, Elementary Secondary Education, Enrollment Projections, Enrollment Rate, Enrollment Trends, Feeder Patterns, Group Membership, Models, School Holding Power, Special Education, Systems Approach
Publication Type: Speeches/Meeting Papers; Opinion Papers
Education Level: N/A
Authoring Institution: N/A
Note: Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Educational Finance Association (Salt Lake City, UT, March 1996).