ERIC Number: ED394607
Record Type: Non-Journal
Publication Date: 1996-Jan
Reference Count: N/A
15-Year Enrollment and WSCH Forecast: California Community Colleges Chancellor's Office 1996 Forecast Using Statewide Data.
California Community Colleges, Sacramento. Office of the Chancellor.
In January 1996, the Chancellor's Office of the California Community Colleges prepared a 15-year forecast of enrollment and weekly student contact hours (WSCH) using an econometric model that analyzes real (i.e., price-adjusted) costs facing students, real operating budget expenditures of colleges, population and unemployment projections, and financial constraints. Once enrollment is forecast, future WSCH are calculated from a forecast of trends in academic loads as measured by WSCH per student. Based on the analysis, it was determined that an assumed stable enrollment fee in 1996 will slightly lower the real cost facing students, and this, combined with the end of a $50 per unit differential fee for students with bachelor's degrees and an increase in college budgets, should produce an estimated increase of 5% in college enrollments in fall 1996. Similarly, an improving economy and continuing increases in the state's adult population should result in another 400,000 students by 2005 and another 160,000 by 2010. The analysis also suggested that WSCH would fall slightly until the year 2000, then rise to nearly 9.5 contact hours per student (the highest value since 1973) by 2005, and finally fall toward 9 hours per student by 2010. This forecast is lower than the previous year's because this year's forecast is based on less optimistic assumptions about future college budget revenues. Charts and data tables are included. (MAB)
Publication Type: Numerical/Quantitative Data; Reports - Research
Education Level: N/A
Authoring Institution: California Community Colleges, Sacramento. Office of the Chancellor.