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ERIC Number: ED391212
Record Type: Non-Journal
Publication Date: 1995-Nov
Pages: 14
Abstractor: N/A
Reference Count: N/A
ISBN: N/A
ISSN: N/A
Heuristic Elements of Plausible Reasoning.
Dudczak, Craig A.
At least some of the reasoning processes involved in argumentation rely on inferences which do not fit within the traditional categories of inductive or deductive reasoning. The reasoning processes involved in plausibility judgments have neither the formal certainty of deduction nor the imputed statistical probability of induction. When utilizing these judgments, persons employ heuristic principles which operate as tacit decision rules. Plausible reasoning is characterized by defeasible premises--assumptions which are capable of being nullified--and abductive reasoning--inferences which best explain a set of data. These anchor how judgments based on plausible reasoning are understood. A defeasible assumption operates as a belief persons accept, but with a qualified commitment. It is proposed that the cognitive principles which inform these judgments rely on the use of heuristic principles. Four heuristic principles investigated as decisional strategies under conditions of uncertainty were: representativeness, used to decide whether a person or object possesses the characteristics of some class or group; availability, used to evaluate the frequency or likelihood of an event based upon how quickly instances come to mind; simulation, used to estimate the consequences of a series of events by employing construction of hypothetical scenarios; and adjustment and anchoring, used to estimate related events by beginning at a reference point recognized as an accurate anchor. Heuristic principles allow at least a partial explanation of how persons implement certain types of plausible decisions under conditions of uncertainty. (Contains 19 references.) (CR)
Publication Type: Opinion Papers; Speeches/Meeting Papers
Education Level: N/A
Audience: N/A
Language: English
Sponsor: N/A
Authoring Institution: N/A