ERIC Number: ED369880
Record Type: Non-Journal
Publication Date: 1993
Reference Count: N/A
Manpower Requirement by Levels of Qualification in West Germany until 2010. Implications of the 1989 IAB/Prognos Projection for the Qualification Structure of Jobs. Labour Market Research Topics, No. 4.
The extension of the 1989 Institute of Employment Research (IAB)/Prognos projection of the sectoral and job-specific labor force demand by levels of qualification shows that the previous trends toward higher qualification requirements of jobs is expected to continue in Germany. The main reasons are the significant shift in favor of secondary service jobs and the rising qualification requirements of all jobs. The expectation is that the demand for workers without a formal training certificate (unskilled workers) will continue to decline, from 23 percent (1987) to about 13 percent in 2010. Job gains are forecast for workers who complete on-the-job or school training. For this level, employment gains in service activities and losses in production jobs will balance each other. Despite an absolute increase in jobs, their share in total employment will stagnate just under 60 percent. Persons in this group who have completed further training at trade and technical schools will be more in demand, with jobs increasing from 8 percent in 1987 to approximately 10 percent in 2010. The same is true for higher education graduates. In 2010, around 18 percent of all jobs could require training at universities or polytechnics. The current view is that the shift from the former German Democratic Republic to the Federal Republic is not expected to bring about a change in the direction of these basic trends, which are being observed in most industrialized countries. (YLB)
Descriptors: Demand Occupations, Employment Opportunities, Employment Patterns, Employment Projections, Employment Qualifications, Foreign Countries, Futures (of Society), Job Development, Job Skills, Job Training, Labor Market, Labor Needs, Occupational Information, Postsecondary Education, Vocational Education
Publication Type: Reports - Evaluative
Education Level: N/A
Authoring Institution: Institute of Employment Research, Nurenberg (Germany).
Identifiers - Location: Germany