ERIC Number: ED363654
Record Type: Non-Journal
Publication Date: 1993-Oct
Reference Count: N/A
Projections of Education Statistics to 2004.
Gerald, Debra E.; Hussar, William J.
This edition is the 23rd report in a series begun in 1964. It includes projections for enrollment, graduates, classroom teachers, and expenditures to the year 2004. Projections reflect the 1990 Census, with the incorporation of 1992 estimates and assumptions for fertility rate, net immigration, and mortality rate. The report also contains a section on methodology, describing models and assumptions used to develop the national projections, which are based on an age-specific enrollment rate model, exponential smoothing models, and econometric models. Most of the projections include three alternatives, based on different assumptions about growth paths. Although the first alternative set of projections in each table is deemed to represent the most likely projection, the low and high alternatives provide a reasonable range of outcomes. Chart 1 provides an overall summary of forecast assumptions. Total enrollment for public and private elementary and secondary education and for higher education is projected to increase to 55.7 million over the projection period, with increases in the numbers of high school and college graduates, the numbers of teachers, and total expenditures. Data are presented in 62 graphs and 44 tables. Five technical appendixes about methodology contain an additional 35 tables. (SLD)
Descriptors: Census Figures, Data Collection, Educational Trends, Elementary Secondary Education, Enrollment Projections, Futures (of Society), Graphs, Higher Education, Models, National Surveys, Research Methodology, School Statistics, Student Characteristics, Tables (Data), Teacher Characteristics, Trend Analysis
U.S. Government Printing Office, Superintendent of Documents, Mail Stop: SSOP, Washington, DC 20402-9328.
Publication Type: Numerical/Quantitative Data; Reports - Descriptive
Education Level: N/A
Authoring Institution: National Center for Education Statistics (ED), Washington, DC.
IES Cited: ED363654