ERIC Number: ED354267
Record Type: Non-Journal
Publication Date: 1992-Aug
Reference Count: N/A
Projections of Educational Statistics to 2011. Virginia Statistical Series.
Spar, Michael A.; And Others
School enrollment is projected for the State of Virginia and its 133 school divisions over the next 2 decades. Data on fall school membership, high school graduates, and March 31 average daily membership (ADM) are included. In the peak projection year, 2006-07, fall membership (almost 1,243,000 students) is expected to be 23 percent higher than in the fall of 1991. High school graduates are expected to begin a period of rapid increase in 1993-94, to peak in 2007-08, when nearly 84,000 students will graduate from Virginia public schools. Then the numbers of graduates are expected to decline slightly, but to remain well above today's figures. ADM has historically closely tracked the fall membership count, varying from 99.42 to 99.54 percent. Consequently, ADM projections follow the same curve as fall membership projections. Over the next 15 years, enrollment increases are not expected to be uniform from grade to grade. Instead, they will form a curve that creates a bulge in the lower grades that will pass through the rest of the grades. Projected changes are also regional, with the largest increases in northern Virginia and declines in southern and southwestern Virginia. Seven tables and 12 figures present projections. An appendix (eight tables) discusses project methodology. An addendum corrects some figures for the Roanoke County (Virginia) School District. (SLD)
Publication Type: Numerical/Quantitative Data; Reports - Descriptive
Education Level: N/A
Authoring Institution: Virginia Univ., Charlottesville. Center for Public Service.
Identifiers - Location: Virginia