ERIC Number: ED327581
Record Type: RIE
Publication Date: 1990-Dec
Projections of Education Statistics to 2001: An Update.
Gerald, Debra E.; Hussar, William J.
Statistical projections for elementary and secondary schools and institutions of higher education are provided at the national and state levels through the year 2001. National projection tables cover enrollment, high school graduates, earned degrees conferred, classroom teachers, and expenditures of public elementary and secondary schools. State-level projections cover public elementary and secondary school enrollment, and public high school graduates. Data are generally shown by calendar or school year for various years from 1976 through 2001. The report also contains a methodology section describing models and assumptions used to develop the national-level and state-level projections. Projections are based on an age-specific enrollment rate model, exponential smoothing models, and econometric models. The enrollment model uses population estimates and projections from the Bureau of the Census. The exponential smoothing models are based on the mathematical projection of past data patterns into the future. The econometric models use projections of exogenous variables from the Macroeconomic Model of the U.S. Economy, developed by Data Resources, Inc. Most of the projections have three or four alternative sets of assumptions regarding various growth paths. Although the first set of projections is deemed to represent the most likely projections, the other alternatives provide a reasonable range of outcomes. In all, 110 data tables are provided. (Author/TJH)
Descriptors: Degrees (Academic), Educational Finance, Educational Trends, Elementary Secondary Education, Enrollment, Expenditure per Student, High School Graduates, Higher Education, National Surveys, Predictive Measurement, Public Schools, School Statistics, State Surveys, Statistical Data, Tables (Data), Teacher Characteristics
Publication Type: Numerical/Quantitative Data; Reports - Evaluative
Education Level: N/A
Authoring Institution: National Center for Education Statistics (ED), Washington, DC.
Note: This volume is the 20th report in a series begun in 1964; for prior year's report, see ED 312 793.