ERIC Number: ED325162
Record Type: RIE
Publication Date: 1989-Aug
Reference Count: 0
Credit Headcount Forecast for Fall 1989-90: Component Yield Method Projections. Planning Brief PB90-3.
Clagett, Craig A.
In forecasting its fall credit headcounts, the Office of Institutional Research and Analysis at Prince George's Community College (PGCC) utilizes the Component Yield Method (CYM), an enrollment projection model developed by the college's planning analyst in the early 1980's. By disaggregating enrolled students into multiple groups, each with an independently calculable enrollment forecast, a greater degree of accuracy is permitted in headcount forecasts as changes in any component can be factored separately into total retention figures. The following seven yield rates are used to forecast fall credit headcounts: (1) retention rate from prior spring; (2) enrollment rate of new graduates of county high schools; (3) percentage of county high school students concurrently enrolling at PGCC; (4) enrollment rate of county residents other than current year high school graduates; (5) enrollment rate of residents of neighboring jurisdictions; (6) PGCC readmission rate; and (7) rate of transfer from other institutions. A baseline or "stable rates" forecast is made each year using yield rates based on the previous 3 years. With an assumption that all yield rates will remain unchanged from those realized in fall 1988, the CYM forecasts fall 1989 credit headcount of 13,831, nearly a 3% increase from fall 1988. Projected fall 1990 headcount is 13,988. An alternate headcount projection, seeking to account for unusually high expected transfers and readmissions, was obtained by using 1986-88 "stable-rates" averages. Examples of how the CYM operates when there are variations in specific yield rate categories, and data tables are included. (GFW)
Publication Type: Numerical/Quantitative Data; Reports - Evaluative
Education Level: N/A
Authoring Institution: Prince George's Community Coll., Largo, MD. Office of Institutional Research and Analysis.