ERIC Number: ED315125
Record Type: RIE
Publication Date: 1990-Jan
Reference Count: N/A
The Decline of Community College Transfer Rates: Evidence from National Longitudinal Surveys.
Grubb, W. Norton
Using two nationally representative and longitudinal data sets, a study was conducted to examine trends in transfer from community colleges to four-year colleges. These data sets followed the high school classes of 1972 and 1980 into postsecondary education. A comparison of the educational outcomes of the two cohorts of students revealed the following: (1) the likelihood of transferring to a four-year college without a credential declined, especially for students entering public technical institutes and private vocational schools; (2) the proportion of students completing academic associate degrees declined, and the likelihood of transferring among those with such credentials also declined (from 68.7% in the Class of 1972 to 48.9% in the Class of 1980). (3) the proportion of students earning vocational associate degrees increased, but the likelihood of those with such credentials transferring decreased from 31.7% to 23.2%; (4) those with vocational associate degrees were less than half as likely to transfer as those with academic associate degrees; (5) rates of completing certificates increased in technical institutes and remained stable in community colleges, but certificate completers were much less likely than degree completers to transfer; and (6) transfer rates were higher for males, white students, high socioeconomic status students, and those who were in the academic track rather than the general or vocational tracks during high school. Many different factors explain the decline of transfer rates, including the changing demographic backgrounds of students, declining achievement during high school, a collapse of career counseling in the high school, an increase in the numbers of "experimenters" in community colleges, the shift from academic to vocational programs within community colleges, the apparent weakening of academic associate degree programs as routes to transfer, and declining federal aid. An appendix containing student transfer data is attached. (JMC)
Descriptors: Academic Persistence, Articulation (Education), Associate Degrees, Bachelors Degrees, College Transfer Students, Community Colleges, Educational Trends, Enrollment Influences, High School Students, High Schools, Higher Education, Longitudinal Studies, Student Characteristics, Student Educational Objectives, Tables (Data), Technical Institutes, Transfer Rates (College), Two Year Colleges, Vocational Education
Publication Type: Reports - Research
Education Level: N/A
Sponsor: Department of Education, Washington, DC.; National Assessment of Vocational Education (ED), Washington, DC.
Authoring Institution: MPR Associates, Berkeley, CA.; Institute for the Study of Family, Work, and Community, Berkeley, CA.