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ERIC Number: ED312962
Record Type: Non-Journal
Publication Date: 1989-Aug
Pages: 29
Abstractor: N/A
Reference Count: N/A
ISBN: N/A
ISSN: N/A
The Alternative Futures Approach to Planning: Implications for Institutional Research Offices.
Morrison, James L.
A method for college planning using alternative futures scenarios is explained, and a case study is used to illustrate its use in institutional research. The alternative futures approach addresses the uncertainty associated with strategic decision making. It differs from the traditional long-range planning models based on a single set of environmental assumptions about the future by recognizing that the future is subject to modification by a wide range of possible events with some probability of occurrence. In the model, the issues or concerns that may require attention are identified through environmental scanning, and defined in terms of trends or events. Univariate forecasts of trends and events are generated and interrelated through cross-impact analysis. The most likely future is written in scenario format, and alternative scenarios are generated by computer from the cross-impact matrix. In turn, these scenarios stimulate development of appropriate policies, which are analyzed for their robustness across scenarios. The purpose of the exercise is to produce a final list of policies that effectively address the issues and concerns initially identified. These policies are then implemented in action plans. The case study concerns planning for an affirmative action program. Contains 190 references. (MSE)
Publication Type: Reports - Evaluative; Speeches/Meeting Papers
Education Level: N/A
Audience: N/A
Language: English
Sponsor: N/A
Authoring Institution: N/A