ERIC Number: ED311765
Record Type: Non-Journal
Publication Date: 1986-May
Reference Count: N/A
Through a Glass, Darkly: Forecasting UCSD's Enrollment Potential through the Turn of the Century.
The issue of whether enough qualified students will seek enrollment at the Univesity of California at San Diego (UCSD) through the end of the century to support the campus's plan for growth, the expansion for staff, and facilities that such growth entails is discussed. Five sections provide an introduction and focus on: demography (trends and projections); Black and Hispanic eligibility (developing assumptions for a key variable); three enrollment models; and conclusions and caveats. The study indicates the following: UCSD's enrollment plan appears reasonable, at least in the short run; given its historical patterns of participation and continuation, the changing ethnic mix of the state's population should have little effect on the campus's enrollment potential; if the Hispanic population grows as predicted, and if Black and Hispanic eligibility remain at current levels, UCSD could still come within 6% of its enrollment target at the turn of the century; and unless the academic preparation of underrepresented minority students increases dramatically, over time an increasing number of students will be admitted to UCSD from the lower end of the eligibility pool. It is suggested that the surest foundation upon which to base long term growth in the university is to seek to improve the academic preparation and performance of underrepresented minority students. Contains 3 figures and 12 tables. (SM)
Publication Type: Reports - Research
Education Level: N/A
Authoring Institution: California Univ., San Diego.