ERIC Number: ED311247
Record Type: Non-Journal
Publication Date: 1988-Oct
Reference Count: N/A
Trading Away Jobs: The Effects of the US Merchandise Trade Deficit on Employment. Working Paper No. 102.
Duchin, Faye; Lange, Glenn-Marie
A study was conducted to describe the segments of the U.S. labor force that have been affected by the recent deterioration in U.S. trade. The methodology involved computer modeling of the effects of eliminating the 1987 merchandise trade deficit on employment by detailed industry and occupation, by geographic region, and by wage group. This was done by calculating the number of jobs of different characteristics and in different industries that are required for the production of merchandise exports and those that would be required for the domestic production of imports. All computations were made with an input-output model of the U.S. economy using the most recent trade data (1987), providing a consistent framework for simultaneously computing the detailed production requirements of every industry. The advantage of this approach was that it allowed the calculation of all production requirements for satisfying a given bill of final deliveries, in this case, imports and exports. Specific findings were as follows: (1) the record trade deficit in 1987 represented a loss of 5.1 million job opportunities, 2 million of which were lost between 1984 and 1987; (2) 60 percent, or 3.1 million of the total 5.1 million jobs lost, were in manufacturing, and the remaining 2 million jobs were lost in industries closely related to manufacturing, primarily in business services; (3) each of the four regions lost over 1 million jobs because of the trade deficit, with the Midwest and the West each losing 1.4 million jobs; and (4) the wages of the jobs from trade were more likely to be high-wage jobs. The most important conclusions were that the employment effects of the trade deficit are large and more dispersed in the economy than commonly believed. (A 14-item reference list and two appendices, one on U.S. Merchandise Trade in 1987 and one on methodology and classifications, are attached.) (NLL)
Descriptors: Dislocated Workers, Employment, Employment Opportunities, Exports, Imports, International Trade, Labor Force, Labor Market, Manufacturing Industry, Mathematical Models, Occupational Surveys, Service Occupations, Wages
Economic Policy Institute, 1730 Rhode Island Avenue, NW, Suite 812, Washington, DC 20036 ($4.00).
Publication Type: Reports - Research
Education Level: N/A
Authoring Institution: Economic Policy Inst., Washington, DC.