ERIC Number: ED310694
Record Type: RIE
Publication Date: 1989-May
Faculty Replacement Needs for the Next 15 Years: A Simulated Attrition Model.
McGuire, Michael D.; Price, Jane A.
Faculty replacement needs for the next 15 years are projected at a multi-institutional level within the context of a simulated attrition model. Study participants are members of the Higher Education Data Sharing Consortium. The first study phase consisted of summary data from 60 institutions on mean age, standard deviation, and median age of full-time faculty by rank. The second phase involved faculty attrition ratios such as the annual rate of faculty loss for each of several reasons. Another statistic from the colleges was the anticipated annual rate of overall faculty growth over the next several years. The third phase, formulation of the faculty replacement needs model, relied on attrition ratios and on actual faculty age distributions. Results suggest that: (1) the next 15 years will see a steep increase in the annual net loss of college faculty, with replacement exacerbated by growth in the overall size of the professoriate; (2) the distribution of current age, retirement year, total retirees, total net loss, total new hires, and the summary ratios are similar because retirees account for most of the year-to-year variability in these measures though only 17-37% of total net faculty loss; (3) faculty aging, retirement, and attrition appear to have a differential impact on various academic departments; and (4) probable needs in the late 1990s and beyond may be even greater than those projected if the quality of instruction and research at American colleges and universities is to be maintained or enhanced. An appendix describes departmental clustering (humanities, sciences, social sciences, and other). Tables and charts are included. The paper contains 14 references. (SM)
Publication Type: Speeches/Meeting Papers; Reports - Research
Education Level: N/A
Authoring Institution: N/A
Note: Paper presented at the Annual Forum of the Association for Institutional Research (29th, Baltimore, MD, May 1989).