ERIC Number: ED307101
Record Type: Non-Journal
Publication Date: 1988-Nov
Reference Count: N/A
Impact of the Changing Farm Economy on Rural Communities. Evaluation of Interrelationships between Agriculture and the Economy of Rural Communities.
Lansford, Notie H., Jr.; Jones, Lonnie L.
A reduction in agricultural activity in a rural farming community will result in reduced activity in almost every sector of the local economy. The result may be measured in loss of employment and income. This report provides a method to estimate such economic impacts with a minimum of data collection and manipulation. Most of the input data required are available from the Census of Agriculture and the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The model takes the practitioner's estimates of changes in agricultural production and estimates the change in agricultural sales. Then, the predicted change in total sales generates estimates of changes in total county employment and county income. This much is possible by simply estimating changes in production of key crops. Inclusion of estimated changes for other basic sectors can produce even more meaningful estimates. The model's shortcomings are its dependence on cross-sectional data, and the fact that reliability is threatened if agricultural commodity price levels change significantly or if the county under investigation deviates greatly in crops, livestock, employment, or population size from the 48 Texas counties used as a proxy for Southern rural areas in the model's development. This report contains 11 references, statistical equations, the computer report format, instructions for using the interactive computer program, and an example of model application. Appendices making up the bulk of the report include program codes for IBM and Apple MacIntosh versions and examples of single entry and range entry reports. (SV)
Descriptors: Agricultural Production, Computer Simulation, Employment Projections, Income, Mathematical Models, Menu Driven Software, Predictor Variables, Regression (Statistics), Rural Areas, Rural Economics
Southern Rural Development Center, Box 5446, Mississippi State, MS 39762 (free).
Publication Type: Reports - Research; Computer Programs; Reports - Evaluative
Education Level: N/A
Sponsor: Cooperative State Research Service (USDA), Washington, DC.
Authoring Institution: Southern Rural Development Center, Mississippi State, MS.
Identifiers - Location: Texas